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Predictions (or "Only Fools Rush In...")

 
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Crosley
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Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:21 pm    Post subject: Predictions (or "Only Fools Rush In...") Reply with quote

Mocksports is a community of not only skilled fantasy baseball experts, but also astute baseball fans. And then there's me.

In recognition of that fact, I plan to post round-by-round predictions for the MLB postseason. If you are betting men, seriously consider going contrary to my predictions here with your $2.

AL Wild Card "play-in"
Oakland over Kansas City
    I want Oakland to win for Adam Dunn (as a longtime Reds fan who appreciated his time here more than the average "he strikes out too much" Rhinelander who apparently didn't get that 40 homers a season is 40 freakin' homers a season!!!). Other than that, I'd actually rather see KC win because their fans have waited soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo long to see October baseball. I just think their inexperienced (in terms of playoffs) lineup will find it hard to get traction against Lester...who I foolishly traded this season in a league that will remain nameless.

NL Wild Card "play-in"
Pittsburgh over San Francisco
    No reason other than that the Pirates seem to be able to make silk purses out of Edinson Volquez and Charlie Morton and Vance Worley (!!!!!!!!) and Ike Davis and Josh Harrison and Travis Snider (wasn't he a "phenom-to-be" in the 90s??) and they do have that McCutchen guy.

    And Harrison IS from Cincinnati, after all...

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William Field
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm in.

It's too late for KC vs. Oakland, but work took me to KC several times (great city, loved it) and a few Royals games, so I was happy for my friends there.

I'm going with San Francisco over Pittsburgh

The Pirates are terrible against left handers and Bumgarner is one of the best. Edinson Volquez finished strong but add the mix of his control problems and the Giants success against right-handers and you've got to favor SF.

Pirates should have saved Gerrit Cole for this one!
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the Wild Card round went as predicted...you should have bet against me.

AL Division Series I:
Baltimore over Detroit
    This one is tough for me because I've been a sort-of Detroit fan since the latter half of the 1968 season, but also became a sort-of Baltimore fan when Frank Robinson was (foolishly) traded there by Cincinnati.

    Detroit and Oakland had rather similar regular seasons - dominant in the first half and struggling to make the playoffs well into the second half. Baltimore has been very consistent since June. They were 69-39 in the last four months of the season, all of them above .500, and their winning percentage in the weakest of those months would have been sufficient to easily win the division. The Tigers finished fairly strong, but the cracks have begun to show and I really think the Orioles will win this one in 4 or 5 games.

AL Division Series II:
Los Angeles over Kansas City
    Who pitches for the Royals between Shields' starts? (Vargas, Guthrie and/or Ventura.) And why don't they - with their bullpen - win more one-run games than they lose? (Holland, Herrera, and Davis all have ERAs under 1.00 since the All-Star break and Frasor's is around 1.5, but KC was 22-25 in one-run games this year.) I'm really thinking this one could be three-and-out for KC.

Now get those bets down on the Tigers and Royals, guys - there's money to be made!!
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“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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rspears
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Joined: 30 Mar 2005
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Location: Columbus, Ohio

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was sort of rooting for the A's. Their collapse has been so spectacular and it seemed like a go-for-it-at-all-costs gamble when they made all those blockbuster deals. It was like they deserved it.

Then again, the Royals have toiled in obscurity for so long. BTW, I have seen a game in KC and it was a grand time.

As for the O's vs the Tigers, I have to give it to the Tigers. The O's have played about their heads all season. If Verlander is on, the Tigers will take it easily. If not, then maybe the O's have a chance.
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rspears wrote:
I was sort of rooting for the A's. Their collapse has been so spectacular and it seemed like a go-for-it-at-all-costs gamble when they made all those blockbuster deals. It was like they deserved it.

Then again, the Royals have toiled in obscurity for so long. BTW, I have seen a game in KC and it was a grand time.

As for the O's vs the Tigers, I have to give it to the Tigers. The O's have played about their heads all season. If Verlander is on, the Tigers will take it easily. If not, then maybe the O's have a chance.


But Verlander will only get one start as it stands now. Detroit says their LDS rotation is Scherzer, Verlander, Price, Porcello, and some guy named Al Handson-Decker.
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“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I knew I'd forget to get the NL predictions up before the early game started. At least it's still scoreless in DC, so it doesn't look too fishy.

NL Division Series I:
Washington over San Francisco
    I hesitate to make this pick because I despise the Giants' general whininess (they did manage to get a century-old rule changed just because they don't know how to teach catching in their organization) and I seem to be doing a good job of favoring losers so far. What tilts me toward the Nationals is superior starting pitching. It seems that teams generally struggle at least a little to score in the postseason (unless they're facing the Tigers' bullpen) and a team that can put Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Fister out in Games 1-3 and still have Gonzalez in reserve should have an advantage. Given that the Giants never seem to actually go away, this one will probably go at least 44.5 innings before it's decided.

NL Division Series II:
Los Angeles over St. Louis
    Another "I can't believe I'm actually picking against the team I loathe" series. But this isn't another case of picking the team with better starters. The Dodgers really need Ryu back to even be three-deep in their rotation and the Cardinals have a near-match for Kershaw in Wainwright. (Those games will be key for the Dodgers if they hope to win.) Both teams finished VERY strong - St. Louis was 17-9 in September vs. LA's 17-8 record - but in one less game, the Dodgers scored 58 more runs than the Cards in that month and this is a series that may actually go to the better offensive team. Regardless of what turns the tide, it looks likely to go 5 games.

_________________

“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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rspears
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2014 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It starting to look like I might eat my words when it comes to the Tigers. Their weak bullpen is killing them.
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Marty Brennaman would say, "How we lookin'? Not so good...".

After whiffing completely on 3 of 4 LDS predictions, let's see how bad this can get:

American League Championship Series
Baltimore over Kansas City
    And I'm writing this after the Royals' 4-run third inning in Game 1. I still like Baltimore's starting pitching over Kansas City's (although not by as much as I liked the Angels' starters over KC's Embarassed ) and I still wonder about Kansas City's losing record in one-run games. I'm thinking Orioles in either 6 or 7, so of course there will be no more baseball in Baltimore after Game 2 until next spring.

National League Championship Series
St. Louis over San Francisco
    I give up. The Cardinals will represent the National League in the World Series for the next 17 seasons, by which time I will have completely learned the subtleties of cricket, forced myself to start caring about the NBA, picked a favorite NFL team, and started to reminisce about the good old days, when I gave a $#!& about baseball.

_________________

“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crosley wrote:

American League Championship Series
Baltimore over Kansas City
    ... I'm thinking Orioles in either 6 or 7, so of course there will be no more baseball in Baltimore after Game 2 until next spring.


At least I got one thing sort of right...
_________________

“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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Crosley
Frozen for DNA


Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 4622
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is why I don't make my living betting on sports...

World Series:

San Francisco over Kansas City
Just because. (My reasoning has been only a little better than my predicting, after all.)
_________________

“Frankly, I don’t like the guy, but I never saw a hooligan I did like. They’re like left-handed pitchers – they all have a screw loose somewhere.”

    ― Anthony Caruso (as Louis Ciavelli), The Asphalt Jungle
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rspears
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I were betting, I'd go with the Giants, but I'm rooting for the Royals.
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Rocky
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:09 pm    Post subject: Giants in 7 Reply with quote

Go Giants.... remember the year is 2014 not an odd year....that is 3 out 5 years....Nice.....
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